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% Replication Files of the paper: 
% "Expectation-Driven Cycles and the Changing Dynamics of Unemployment"
% A. D'Agostino, C. Mendicino and F. Puglisi
%
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The folder Data_Codes contains all the necessary data and codes to replicate
figures and tables of the paper. 

It is sufficient to open and run the file Main_generate_figs_tabls_MS14_543R1.m

This file will create 10 figures and update the 2 excel files with the latex
templates already embedded in the last worksheet. (please do not delete those excel files)

The Main_generate_figs_tabls_MS14_543R1.m is ready to run and takes as imput the estimation results from the TVP-VAR 
estimation routine readily available in the the folder Data_Code_Estimates

If re-estimation of the TVP-VAR is needed it is enough to open and run the Estimation_Routine.m code in the folder 
Data_Code_Estimates.

The reason why the results of the TVP-VAR are provided is that the estimation routine is very time costly. Depending 
on the machine it can take from a few hours up to a week. It has however never exceeded more than a week computing time. 

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Content of the folder:

	- codes:		 contains all auxiliary functions used by both the estimation routine and the 
		 		 main code generating the figures
	- Data_Code_Estimates: 	 contains three files

					a) data 16052018.xlsx: 	 file containing the raw data, which are input to the estimation routine.
					b) Estimation_Routine.m: code for estimating the TVP-VAR. 
					   			 Only used if the Re_estimate_results option is set to 1.
					c) Estimated_Results: 	 output of the code estimating the TVP-VAR.
					   			 Only updated if the Re_estimate_results option is set to 1.

	- Main_generate_figs_tabls_MS14_543R1.m : this is the main file to run to obtain all tables and pictures in the paper.
	- MS14-543R1Tbl1 and MS14-543R1Tbl2: 	  these are the templates for the two latex tables in the text, which are automatically
						  updated when Main_generate_figs_tabls_MS14_543R1.m is run. (please never delete them)

